How forever wars begin

The Escalating Conflict in Iran and the Pentagon’s $200 Billion Request

In the final year of President George W. Bush’s second term, his administration requested $190 billion to sustain the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which had become prolonged conflicts. Fast forward to today, and the Pentagon has asked the White House for $200 billion to fund a war on Iran that is barely three weeks old. This figure, while less impactful than it was two decades ago, highlights the Trump administration’s ambitious plans for the region.

Adjusted for inflation, $200 billion is roughly equivalent to what President Obama proposed for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in 2009. The question remains: why does the Pentagon need such a large sum? Last week, President Trump claimed the war was “very complete” and that they had “won,” albeit with a significant caveat—there was still “a job to finish.” However, the specifics of what “finishing the job” entails remain unclear.

The administration’s objectives seem vague and often contradictory. They include the elimination of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the installation of a U.S.-approved political leader, the permanent shutdown of Iran’s nuclear program, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These goals are ambitious, yet the situation on the ground suggests otherwise.

The U.S. has killed dozens of Iranian military and political leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but Iran shows no signs of capitulating. Instead, Iran has outlined its own clear objectives, which include forming new security arrangements with its neighbors—a move that escalates tensions significantly. The IRGC remains in power, Khamenei has been replaced by his hardliner son, and global oil and gas prices have surged due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian strike on a Qatari facility producing liquid natural gas.

This conflict has already led to the U.S. lifting sanctions on Russian oil, a move that benefits Vladimir Putin. The war has further weakened the credibility of the U.S. and the transatlantic alliance, diverting attention from diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Additionally, the U.S. is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, a surprising development for a country supposedly on the verge of a military victory.

The Financial Implications of the War

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, noted that the U.S. has spent years building a sanctions architecture to target Russia and Iran. Within three weeks of the conflict starting, the U.S. is tearing this structure apart, indicating a strategic collapse.

Trump insists the war will end when he feels it in his bones, suggesting it could be over soon. His administration speaks in terms of weeks, not months or years. However, funding a war requires more than late-night social media rants or unhinged press conferences. The $200 billion request signals that the war is not going well and that the administration is being dishonest about its progress.

Currently, the war is being waged through massive airstrikes and assassinations. Whether the Pentagon is preparing for a conflict similar to Iraq—boots on the ground, a protracted conflict, or both—is unclear. However, the size of the budget request suggests a long-term engagement. Reuters reported that the administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce operations in the Middle East and secure the Strait of Hormuz, potentially even deploying troops to Iran’s shoreline.

Congressional Challenges and Public Unpopularity

This war was initiated without any meaningful public justification and without congressional approval, a constitutional violation. While Democrats are concerned, Republicans have shown little interest in holding the administration accountable. GOP Senator Rand Paul attempted to require congressional approval to continue the war, but the effort failed 47-53, with Paul as the only Republican voting in favor.

Senator Susan Collins expressed surprise at the $200 billion figure, while her colleague Lisa Murkowski warned that simply presenting an invoice would not guarantee cooperation. Many Republicans may avoid approving the war to avoid taking responsibility, as it is currently seen as Trump’s war, not theirs.

An appropriations fight will test the seriousness of Democratic opposition and Republican support, as well as the Congress’s overall commitment. This war is unpopular, aimless, and illegal, yet the Trump administration is preparing to ask for enough money to fund it for many months to come. If Congress cannot hold the line here, when will they ever?