Iran Oil Exports Persist as Tankers Navigate Hormuz Strait Amid Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Vital, Yet Contested, Oil Passage

Despite ongoing tensions between Iran and other global powers, the Strait of Hormuz has not been entirely closed. In fact, over 90 ships, including oil tankers, have successfully crossed the strait since the conflict began. This includes vessels engaged in what is known as “dark” transits—shipments that evade Western sanctions and oversight. These operations are often linked to Iran, according to maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

The strait serves as a critical route for global oil and gas, with about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passing through it daily. However, the region has seen significant disruptions, with more than 20 vessels attacked in the area since early March. Despite this, Iran has managed to maintain its oil exports, shipping over 16 million barrels since the start of the conflict, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Iran’s Strategic Control Over the Strait

Iran has demonstrated remarkable resilience in maintaining its export capabilities. Analysts suggest that the country is leveraging its control over the chokepoint to protect its own trade routes while still allowing limited traffic. According to Kun Cao, client director at consulting firm Reddal, Iran has managed to “profit from oil sales and also preserve its own export artery.”

Maritime data indicates that between March 1 and 15, at least 89 ships crossed the strait, including 16 oil tankers. This number is comparable to the pre-conflict daily vessel movements of 100 to 135. More than one-fifth of these ships were believed to be linked to Iran, with others associated with China and Greece.

Recent Ship Movements and Diplomatic Efforts

Recent movements have included vessels from India and Pakistan, signaling a shift in diplomatic engagement. The Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker Karachi, controlled by the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, passed through the strait on Sunday, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. While officials refused to confirm the exact route, they stated the ship would soon reach Pakistan safely.

Similarly, the India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers Shivalik and Nanda Devi, both owned by the state-owned Shipping Corporation of India, traveled through the strait around March 13 or 14. LPG is widely used as a cooking fuel in India, making these shipments crucial for domestic energy needs. India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, confirmed that the two vessels were able to pass following talks with Iran.

Iraq was also reported to be in discussions with Iran to allow its oil tankers through the strait. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted that some vessels may be transiting with at least some level of diplomatic intervention. This suggests that Iran may have effectively created a “safe corridor” for certain ships, particularly those close to the Iranian coast.

Security Measures and International Reactions

To reduce the risk of being targeted, some vessels near or in the strait have declared themselves as China-linked or have all-Chinese crews. This strategy is believed to be a response to the heightened threat environment, as analysts suggest these ships are taking advantage of China’s closer ties with Iran.

Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the conflict began, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to urge allies and trading partners to send warships to reopen the route. However, the U.S. has allowed Iranian tankers to pass through the strait to help stabilize global supply. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world.”

The Broader Implications

The situation highlights the complex interplay of geopolitics, trade, and energy security. While the strait remains a strategic point of contention, it is not entirely closed. Instead, it appears to be selectively closed against certain traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements.

However, if Iran’s goal is to “inflict pain through higher energy prices,” the number of tankers it allows through the strait may be very limited, according to Dutch bank ING’s strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. Their analysis underscores the delicate balance between economic interests and geopolitical tensions in one of the world’s most vital waterways.