Oil Rises as Iran Takes Control of Hormuz while Trump Considers High-Risk Naval Move to Open Strait

Iran’s Control Over the Strait of Hormuz

Iran is making it clear that the Strait of Hormuz is not entirely closed and that it has the authority to decide which vessels can pass through. This comes as the U.S. military has yet to re-establish free navigation in this critical waterway. The situation has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf creating a de facto blockade. The strait is a vital route for one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas.

On Sunday evening, U.S. crude prices rose 2.2% to $100.83 a barrel, while Brent futures jumped 2.7% to $105.96. Analysts are warning that if the conflict continues, crude could even hit $150 a barrel.

Iranian Foreign Minister’s Statement

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that vessels from various countries have already been allowed to transit the strait. He mentioned that several governments have approached Tehran about securing safe passage for their ships. However, he did not name any specific country, adding that this decision is up to the Iranian military.

Reports suggest that Iran is successfully getting its oil shipments to its top customer, China, while hundreds of tankers carrying supplies from other countries remain stuck in the Gulf. This situation allows critical revenue to flow into Iran, whereas countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others are forced to reduce their production due to limited storage capacity.

Escalation of Tensions

President Donald Trump ordered an attack on military sites on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, escalating the conflict. He is also working to form a naval coalition to reopen the strait more than two weeks after the U.S. and Israel launched a war on Iran.

Sources told the Wall Street Journal that the administration might soon announce an escort mission involving multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether operations will begin before or after hostilities end.

Trump has called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain, and others to send warships to the Middle East, but responses have been non-committal so far. Meanwhile, the U.K. and the Gulf Cooperation Council have stated that member states “have the right to take all necessary measures to defend their security and stability and protect their territories, citizens and residents.”

Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains a contested area, with U.S. Navy officials describing it as a “kill box” where Iran’s missiles, aerial drones, underwater drones, surface drones, mines, and small fast-attack boats pose numerous threats. Given the risks to multibillion-dollar warships, the Navy has declined requests from shipping companies to provide protection.

European officials are considering a naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz but admit that their current efforts to protect shipping in the Red Sea “hasn’t been effective.” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul expressed skepticism about expanding the Aspides mission into the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Germany will not take an active role in the war.

Expert Opinions on Naval Escort Missions

Defense experts believe that a proper naval escort mission would require more ships, air power, and possibly ground troops to neutralize Iranian threats. Jennifer Parker, founder of Barrier Strategic Advisory and a veteran of the Royal Australian Navy, highlighted the navigational constraints of the Strait of Hormuz and the short reaction times to coastal attacks.

She emphasized that large-scale escort operations would need significant numbers of warships and combat air patrols, which would divert aircraft from other missions. Parker also noted that responding to coastal launch sites would require coordinated strike operations ashore and potentially marines, which carries a clear escalation risk.

Mine Clearance Challenges

Clearing mines in the strait presents another major challenge. Despite the U.S. eliminating Iran’s navy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can still use small boats to deploy mines, which can scare away commercial traffic. The U.S. has reduced its minesweeping fleet, with remaining ships stationed in Asia. A new class of littoral combat ship was designed for minesweeping missions but has yet to be used in combat.

MIT political science professor Caitlin Talmadge warned that historically, mine clearance has been slow and nearly impossible under fire. She suggested that defending the strait during a shooting war may require the U.S. to take control of the Iranian coast by inserting Marines or special operations forces.

U.S. Military Deployments

The U.S. is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Mideast with over 2,000 troops, although some analysts have raised the possibility of an amphibious attack on Kharg Island. Talmadge warned that if Iran effectively mines the strait, all U.S. response options are suboptimal. She urged the U.S. to focus on preventing Iranian mine-laying and finding an off-ramp from the larger war, warning that ongoing harassment of traffic in the strait will be just one of many responses Iran has prepared.