Iran’s War Is a Success, Doomsayers Wrong

The Unfounded Predictions of War

For years, a variety of voices have warned about the catastrophic consequences of any military action against Iran. These include anti-war advocates, Democratic politicians, Iranian sympathizers from the Obama era, members of the United Nations, right-wing isolationists, and various think tank experts. They’ve repeatedly raised alarms about the potential for global conflict, even suggesting that a war with Iran could escalate into a World War III.

Tucker Carlson, a prominent podcaster and groyper cult leader, recently claimed that Iran’s “fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles” would kill thousands of Americans within the first week of conflict. He also suggested that the global bloc known as BRICS might come to Iran’s aid, potentially turning the conflict into a world war. However, these dire predictions have not materialized.

Despite the lack of evidence supporting these claims, the American public continues to be bombarded with narratives that paint the situation in a negative light. Less than two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, many Americans might mistakenly believe it’s another Vietnam War scenario.

The Reality of Military Action

War is inherently costly and complex, and the media has a responsibility to report on its harsh realities. However, the joint American and Israeli campaign to weaken the Islamic Republic has been one of the most efficient and successful large-scale military operations in modern history. It has already achieved most of its objectives, yet this success remains largely unacknowledged by mainstream media.

ABC News, for example, describes Iran’s military capabilities as “diminished,” but this is misleading. The U.S. and Israel now have complete control over Iranian airspace with minimal casualties. The regime’s air defense systems, supplied by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, are largely destroyed. The military infrastructure, control headquarters, and manufacturing plants are being systematically dismantled, along with the cleric’s nuclear program.

The Collapse of Iranian Leadership

The Iranian military no longer functions effectively, with no real hierarchy in place. The Iranian Air Force and Navy are essentially non-operational. The U.S. has prevented the regime from acquiring a “fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles” and has significantly reduced the threat level. In 2024, the regime launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, but today, it fires only one or two at a time, with attacks decreasing daily. The Iranians are now relying on low-cost drones.

No BRIC nation, including Russia or China, has come to the aid of the mullahs. In fact, the regime has launched missiles at two BRIC members, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in an attempt to widen the conflict. Even if Putin wanted to assist the Islamists, he likely wouldn’t know who to contact, as the entire leadership of the regime was decapitated in the initial moments of the conflict.

The Media’s Narrative

Outlets like Reuters claim that the U.S. military believes Iran’s leadership is still largely intact. This assertion is dubious, given that over 60 top regime leaders have been killed. Contending that Iranian leadership is “largely intact” would be akin to saying in 1945 that management was still going strong after the deaths of Hitler, Bormann, Himmler, Goebbels, Goring, and Heydrich.

While there will always be replacements for fallen leaders, what cannot be replaced is the experience and institutional knowledge of those lost. The regime is now facing a significant challenge in maintaining its operational effectiveness.

The Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

One pressing issue is the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil flows each day. CNN reports that the Trump administration did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes. This claim seems unlikely, given the Pentagon’s long-standing awareness of threats to the strait. If anything, the closure highlights the importance of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons or advanced missile technology.

Ongoing Debates and Future Implications

There are valid questions about the next steps following the operation. What will be done with the enriched uranium that the regime admitted could potentially make 11 nuclear weapons? Can internal regime change be encouraged? Israel has reportedly begun targeting Basij and Iranian security forces with precision strikes, using information provided by Iranian citizens. While a change in leadership would be ideal, it is not necessary for victory.

Experts who once warned of an apocalypse now caution that if the clerics hold on, they may become more radicalized and determined to pursue nuclear weapons. The future remains uncertain, but Operation Epic Fury has ensured that the regime is now weaker in every measurable way.